Lies, Damned Lies and Breast Surgery
May 20, 2013Angelina Jolie has had both breasts removed because of the risk of developing breast cancer.
But did she understand the Maths?
She may be right. This could be the best way for her to avoid breast cancer. And it IS her decision.
But maths isn’t that clear cut. Referenced information about BRCA1 and BRCA2: Cancer Risk and Genetic Testing can be found at The National Cancer Institute here.
More information from the UK NHS here.
The estimates of lifetime risk are about
12.0 percent of women (120 out of 1,000)
in the general population will develop breast cancer sometime during their lives compared with about
60 percent of women (600 out of 1,000)
with gene mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2. This is FIVE TIMES the risk over a lifetime.
BUT and this is a big but …..
It is important to note, however, according to The National Cancer Institute (USA), most
……………………………………………………
research related to BRCA1 and BRCA2 has been done on large families with many individuals affected by cancer and the cancer risk associated with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations have been calculated from studies of these families. Because family members
……………………………………….
share a proportion of their genes and, often, their environment, it is possible that the large number of cancer cases seen in these families may be due in part to other genetic or environmental factors.
Factors that could affect these risk factors include food, lifestyle, location, inherited temperament and even the air they breathe.
Statistics are a useful tool. But statistics are based on random selection. This is IMPORTANT. Once you bias the data, your results are corrupted.
Removing cancerous breast tissue makes sense. Removing perfectly healthy breast tissue based on the maths … well … you’d want to think about it.
To put this another way the BRCA genes may be correlated with breast cancer, but this event is not independent of all other events in one family. There may be many, yet to be discovered, links . This is a common error in statistics made not only by journalists, but by experts too. (See below)
……………………………………………………………………………………….
Conviction by Maths Error
On 9 November 1998 at Chester Crown Court Sally Clark, a Cheshire solicitor, was convicted, by 10-2 majority, of smothering her two baby boys.
……………………………………….
Clark’s first son died suddenly within a few weeks of his birth in 1996. In 1998, when her second son died in similar circumstances she was arrested and tried for the murder of both sons.
………………………………………………..
The prosecution used paedeatrician Prof Roy Meadows as a expert witness. He had discovered Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy (MSbP). Sally Clark was found guilty and spent 3 years in jail.
Prof Roy Meadows testified that the chance of two children from an affluent family suffering sudden infant death syndrome was 1 in 73 million. He arrived at this number by squaring 1 in 8500 for likelihood of a cot death in similar circumstances.
……………………………………………………….
He was wrong and was later struck off the medical registrar. He assumed that these were independent events. They were not. Maybe the heater was at fault. Or the cot. Or the house paint. Or, as suggested in The Observer article, faulty genes in the family.
Sally Clark died several years later of alcoholic poisoning. More information.
500,000 Hog Hits
April 27, 2013Mathspig is sooooooo excited
about reaching:
To celebrate 500,000 or 5×105 hog hits
and to continue showing mathspiggies everywhere
that maths is fun
and relevant to all
Mathspig presents
The MATHEMATICAL
CABINET OF
500,000
CURIOSITIES!!!
………………………………………
………………………………………………………
If you took a sample of
500,000 US teens
how many DO YOU THINK fall
asleep at school
at least once a week?
You will find amazing US teen stas here:
28% report falling asleep once a week
500,000 x 28/100
= 140,000
Snoring to the left of you. Snoring to the right of you. You are not alone.
……………………………….
…………………………………..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
What volume of coke is there in 500,000 cans?
Coke can vol = 355 ml = 12 fl oz
500,000 x 355 = 177,500,000 ml
= 177, 500 l = 177.5 m3
……………………………………………
An average bath uses 150 litres water per bath.
How many bathtubs would 500,000 cans of coke fill?
177,500/150
= 1,183 baths in coke!!!
Hey mathpiggies, wanna bubble bath? You’d be tickled pink.
……………………………..
………………………………………
…………………………………………
…………………………………………
In a crowd of 500,000 how many people
would have their birthday
on the same day as yours?
There are 365 days in the year so the probability of anyone having their birthday on the same day as you (ignoring leap years) is:
1 in 365 or 1/365.
In a crowd of 500,000 the number of people who have a birthday on the same day as you is most likely:
500,000 x 1/365 = 1,370
That’s a lot of birthday cake!!
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
How heavy is $500,000 dollars?
Australia:
Wt Aus $1 coin = 9.0 g
If the bank gave a bank robber $500,000 in $1 coins it would weigh:
500,000 x 9.0 = 4,500,000 g
= 4,500 kg = 4.5 tonne
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
UK:
.
Wt UK £1 coin = 9.5 g
500,000 x 9.5 = 4,750,000 g
= 4,750 kg = 4.75 tonne
…………………………………………………..
…………………………………………….
USA:
Wt US $1 coin = 8.1 g
500,000 x 8.1 = 4,050,000 g
= 4,050 kg = 4.05 tonne
You will find all you need to know about the size and weight of US coins and notes here.
$500,000 in $1 notes would only weigh
11 lb or 5 kg.
……………………………………………….
So, um, bank robbers do the maths!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
How far would you walk in 500,000 steps?
We’ll assume you take a big step of 1m.
So 500,000 m = 500 km.
A comfortable walking rate is 5 km/hr.
How long would it take you to walk 500 km without a break?
500/5 = 100 hrs.
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
The Bugatti Veyron Super Sport hits a maximum speed of 267 mph (429 km/h).
How long would it take the Bugatti travelling at top speed – not including refueling time – to clock up 500,000 km?
500,000 /429 = 1165.5 hr
= 48.5 days
The speed of an average sized commercial passenger plane ≈ 500 mph 0r 800 kph or
≈ twice the speed of the Bugatti.
So it would take a passenger plane approx 24 days to travel 500,000 km.
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
How long would it take you to count to 500,000?
Assuming you count at the rate of 1 per second the time it would take is 500,000 seconds.
500,000/ 60 = 8333 mins = 833/60 hrs
= 13.88 hrs or 13 hrs 53 mins
Come on! You could do that mathspiggies!!!!!
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
In a group of 500,000 US teens how many are serious cave dwellers or, to be more accurate, how many spend less than 3 hrs a week outdoors?
It is an amazing 30.1%.
500,000 x 30.1/100
= 150, 500 creatures of the gloom.
Come on you teen gloomagogs get outdoors. You need the sun. You need the Vitamin D.
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
How many calories in 500,000 m&ms?
There are an amazing 400 million m&ms produced everyday in the US. One m&m weighs 0.7g.
And calories in 1 m&m = 3.4 cal
500,000 m&ms weigh:
500,000 x 0.7 = 350,000 g
= 350 kg
As 400 million or 8 x 500,000 m&ms are produced each day, that is 8 x350 kg or 2800 kg or 2.8 tonne.
Calories in 500,000 m&ms is:
500,000 x 3.4 = 1, 700, 000 Cal
As the average consumptionof chocolate in the US is 5.18 kg per year eating 500,000 m&ms would take:
350 kg/ 5.18 kg
= 67.6 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You better get going!!!!!
………………………………………………
………………………………………………..
Blink rates vary but the average blink rate in a laboratory setting for a human is 10 blinks per minute.
How long would it take for you to blink 500,000 times?
500,000/10 = 50,000 minutes
= 50,000/60 hrs = 833.3 hrs
= 833.3/24 = 34.7 days
= 34 days 17 hrs 17 mins
But don’t think it or you’ll go blink crazy!!!!
MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig MathsPig …………………………………………………. with Kerry Cue
April 9, 2013
Helloooooooo My Maths Lovelies,
Maths gets a bad press. Senior students especially girls are dropping maths. And it is happening mathpiggies in English speaking countries. Look at the % of students studying maths at university from Dropping maths Doesn’t Add Up, SMH, 27 Feb 2013.
Maths is now classed for many university degrees as – Scream now. Arrrrrrrrrrghhhhhhhhh! – ASSUMED KNOWLEDGE. Well, you better start assuming they don’t have any knowledge.
Maths needs better PR at school.
Maths is not visible in schools. Other subjects have their selling points.
Languages other than English have FOOD.
Geography has VOLCANOES and TRAVEL.
English has PLAYS and FILMS.
History has BLOODY WARS and TYRANNTS.
Drama has a school MUSICAL or PLAY.
Art has, D’uh, rooms full of amazing ART.
Science has BAD SMELLS, EXPLOSIONS and DAVID ATTENBOROUGH.
How can we make maths more visible and more fun in high school?
Be AUDACIOUS, my little mathspiggies.
Think BIG and then even BIGGER again.
Here are 12 ways of making Maths
more visible in your school.
Toodles
Mathspig
1 Fabulous Mathematical Chairs
April 9, 2013Maths-is-Awesome Activity
Fabulous Mathematical Chairs
Skill: Arithmetic, geometry, measurement
Level: Junior, Middle School
Here are two brilliant ways of using maths to create something awesome. Firstly, using fantubes, you can build a chair.
You would have to work out how many fantubes you need. Measure up a standard armchair and then divide the width and depth by the diameter of the fantube.
Or you could just count the number of fantubes in this picture. More info here. Then – this is the PR bit – invite the School Principal into Maths Class to sit on the chair. Will your principal have faith? Or chicken out?
Secondly you could make this folding cardboard chair.
More info here.
It would be fabulous if every student made a cardboard chair and then you went into the school yard for a lesson!!!
That would get attention.
To make it more fun, how about adding a cardboard teacher!!
2 Diamonds Are for Maths Class
April 9, 2013Maths-is-Awesome Activity
Diamonds are for Maths Class
Skill: Geometry, scale, ratio, measurement
Level: Junior, Middle School
Here are some amaaaazing cardboard creations by bartek elsner.
But the creation that is so beautifully geometric is this crow.
Start here ……………
Before we get to crow level we better start with something more symmetrical. Here are some cardboard diamonds. You will find the template for the cardboard diamond below at Minieco.
