Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Math’ Category

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The Bitter Truth: How We See the Numbers

October 10, 2021

The pandemic has launched a data storm. But some numbers cut through this white out. Despite following the numbers closely I was shocked by the following headline on the front on The Washington Post a few weeks ago. 

Using data from the Worldometer Website, I thought it would be interesting see how other countries compare with the USA. America has already dropped below this grim marker. And low is not the way to go!!!!

NUMBER OF DEATHS IN COVID PANDEMIC

FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES

WORST: Peru                          1: 170   

BEST: New Zealand              1: 200,000  

Here are some more stats:

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How the UK Aced Covid, sort of …

June 29, 2021

London yesterday. Spectators give a spontaneous standing ovation to Oxford Professor Sarah Gilbert (below), who was one of the scientists involved in developing the Astra-Zeneca vaccine and one of 100 key worker special guests on opening day. (The Age, 29 JUN, 2021)

Here are the Covid-19 Vaccination stats for the UK as of yesterday:

BBC, 29 JUN 2021

The UK recorded 22, 868 cases yesterday, but only 3 deaths.

The last time the UK recorded close to 23,000 cases was on 16 December 2020. That day, 613 deaths were announced. (The Age, 29 JUN 2021)

In 2019, in the UK, the total death toll was 616,014 or 1688 per day. Tragically but realistically elderly patients with multiple health issues are more likely to contract Covid and die from complications exacerbated by Covid-19 but not necessarily caused by the virus.

The death toll numbers are now encouragingly low in the UK despite the high infection rates from the highly contagious Covid Delta variant.

UPDATE:

On 9 July 2021, the UK recorded 35,707 cases and 29 Deaths. According to  Worldometer stats  (below), the case numbers and deaths are still rising. Too soon to celebrate even though the UK Freedom Day is only 10 days away.

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DAY 500 COVID-19 … some curious stats

June 7, 2021

Mathspig has tracked the Covid 19 Stats through the Worldometer tracker and calculated the AVERAGE NO. DEATHS per day at the 50607080, 100 , 200 DAY and the 1 YEAR mark ..

and now at the 500 DAY mark.

 

Note: Approx 1/3 of deaths around the world are due to accidents, diseases other than Covid, or suicide.

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Vaccine math. Results vary because …

March 26, 2021

According to the AstraZeneca Media Release, 22 March 2021, “The AstraZeneca US Phase III trial of AZD1222 demonstrated statistically significant vaccine efficacy of 79% … based on 32,449 participants accruing 141 symptomatic cases of COVID-19. The trial had a 2:1 randomisation of vaccine to placebo.”

A careful review of all available safety data of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the European Union (EU) and UK with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has shown no evidence of an increased risk …”

Update:

The Washington Post, 25 MAR 2021

An updated company analysis of the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford showed that the two-shot regimen was robustly effective — 76 percent at preventing symptomatic illness — according to a news release from the drugmaker late Wednesday.

Among people 65 and older, the vaccine was 85 percent effective, the company reported.

New York Times, 9 APR 2021

UK plus & 30 EU countries have administered 34 million AstraVeneca doses and report a blood clot condition in 222 patients and 18 fatalities. 

Risk Factor for blood clots = 1: 153,000 

Risk of death ~ 1: 2,000,000

Many countries including Australia advise the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine for the 50+ age group as the blood clot condition appears mostly in younger patients.

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1 Year COVID-19 … some curious stats

January 22, 2021

Mathspig has tracked the Covid 19 Stats through the Worldometer tracker and calculated the AVERAGE NO. DEATHS per day at the 50607080, 100 , 200 DAY mark …

and now at the 1 YEAR mark.

 


 


 


New York Times article here.

BBC article here.

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DAY 200 Covid-19 .. some curious stats

August 8, 2020

Mathspig has been tracking the Covid 19 Stats through the Worldometer tracker and calculating the AVERAGE NO. DEATHS per day at the 50, 60, 70, 80,, 100 and now, the 200 DAY mark. The average is still rising which, as the average started low, is not good news. What can I say? Mask Up, folks. 

MATHSPIG is reporting in from lockdown in MELBOURNE, Australia, where mask-wearing outdoors is now compulsory, there is an 8pm-5am curfew and travelling more than 5km from your residence is banned.

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CONTAGION: How JUDE LAW got the PANDEMIC MATHS wrong!

August 4, 2020


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Day 100 Covid-19 .. Some Curious Stats

May 5, 2020

Day 100 of World Wide Covid-19 data.

 

Finally, the New York Times published graphs that show the severity of the Coronavirus death rate compared with average weekly death rates. Here is the graph for New York City, which shows during the peak of the Covid-19 Crisis there were 6,000 more deaths per week than expected from the average weekly death rate, which was approx. 1,000.

The death rate was 6 times the average death rate. That is a terrifying statistic and explains why we are all in lockdown or are slowly coming out of lockdown. Meanwhile, in the rest of the world death tolls are still increasing.

Excellent Covid-19 stats update here.

 

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Day 80 Covid-19 .. Some Curious Stats

April 17, 2020

Many statisticians are using 3-day and 7-day averages to track the Covid-19 death and infection rates worldwide. 

 

Mathspig is using the total average of deaths per day since stats were first published from 22 JAN 2020. When this average drops … that will be a sign for cautious optimism. But not yet!!!!

Excellent Covid-19 stats update here.

 

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DAY 70 Covid-19 .. some CURIOUS Stats

April 4, 2020

Excellent Covid-19 stats update here.

If no preventative measures were taken by governments around the world then we could have been looking at a Plague Worse Case Scenario here.