The Terrifying Maths of Running from a Bear … Metric Units

METRIC UNITS below. USA UNITS here.

BEAR STATISTICS

Grizzly Bear

Weight:   250kg

Height:   250cm

Top Speed: 56kph  =   16 m/sec

More bear stats here. 

Brown Bear

Weight:  680kg

Height:   250cm

Top Speed: 35kph  = 10m/s

More bear stats here.

Comparing these speeds to the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt:

Usain Bolt:

Top speed: 243kph =   12m/s

So Usain Bolt could out run a Brown Bear but NOT a Grizzly!

Bears are NOT as dangerous as:

In fact more Americans die choking on their own vomit each year than a re killed by bears.

More death stats here.

But bears are very fast so Park Rangers recommend the following survival tactics:

More bear survival info here.

REF: Dog helps save hikers after grizzly chases them for 20 minutes here.

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The Terrifying Math of Running from a Bear … USA Units

USA UNITS below. METRIC UNITS here.

BEAR STATISTICS

Grizzly Bear

Weight:  550 lb        

Height:  8’ 2”   

Top Speed: 35 mph  =   51 ft/s    

Brown Bear

Weight:  1,500 lb       

Height:  8’ 2”              

Top Speed: 22 mph  =  32 ft/s     

Comparing these speeds to the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt:

Usain Bolt:

Top speed: 27 mph  =   40 ft/s     

Bears are not dangerous:

………………………………………………………………………

In fact, more Americans die each year from choking on their own vomit than are killed by bears.

More death stats here. 

Nevertheless, bears are very fast. So you can see why Park Rangers offer the following advice:

More information at Mountain Nature.

The reason for waiting until the bear is 15 ft away is to make sure the spray doesn’t disperse in the air. If the Pepper Spray is too spread out it will not stop the bear.

Ref: Dog helps save hikers after grizzly chases them for 20 minutes.

The Simple Maths of a Car used as a Weapon … METRIC units

Nice Truck Attack 2016 The Independent, UK

Berlin Christmas Maraket Attack 2016, ABC

Melbourne Car Attack 2017.

Cars (and trucks) have been used as weapons by drivers purposefully driving into crowds including:

2014: Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Quebec

2014 : Jerusalem, Israel.

2016: Nice, France

2016: Berlin, Germany

2017: Jerusalem, Israel

2017: Melbourne, Australia.

What does the maths tell us?

Melbourne is Mathspig’s home town. The car attack killed, tragically, 6 people and injured many more. The question many seem to ask is:

Why can’t people get out of the way?

Look at the video below of the Melbourne car. It doesn’t appear to be going that fast. But the maths tells a different story. You need quite a distance between you and a car travelling at approx 60 kph to have enough time to run clear. (See calculations below)

How fast do you react?

We will set your reaction time at 0.4 sec. This allows time for you to react and turn. If you want to test your reaction time go here. But remember you have to turn as well.

How fast would you run?

According to the Telegraph, UK, the average human can run at 15.9 mph (25.6 kph) and the National Council of Strength and Fitness 15 mph (24.1kph), which Mathspig has rounded off to 25 kph.

How do you escape a car travelling at 60 kph towards you when you are less than 9 m away?

Jump upwards!

You might reduce the impact and even go over the roof.

Smoke Jumpers and their Amazing Wildfire Maths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . METRIC UNITS

 

With wildfires in Texas and now Australia is facing the fire season, it is time to think about fire fighter maths.

METRIC UNITS

Background Story

On 5^th August 1949 Wag Dodge was dropped by parachute with 14 other fire fighters into Mann Gulch, a steep-sided gully in a Montana pine forest. Fire fighters who parachute in to put out small blazes started by lightening are called Smoke Jumpers. As they worked their way down the sides of the gully the breeze was blowing away from them. But the wind soon shifted. This produced an updraft, which increases the speed of the fire front. The 15 Smoke Jumpers turned and started running for their lives uphill.

HOW FAST CAN YOU RUN?

METRIC UNITS

Time Trial:

Mark out a 10 m course. Make 3 time trials.

t₁ =

t₂ =

t₃=

Average your time:

t_av = (t₁ + t₂ + t₃₎/ 3 =

Your Speed S = 10/t_av = ……… m/sec

HOW FAST IS A GRASS FIRE?

This will, of course, vary depending on the wind speed. A typical grass fire in Australia in a flat area can travel at 20kph (up to 30 kph) in a gentle breeze.

Fire Front Speed Grass Fire

Fire Front Speed = 20 kph = 20 x1000/(60 x 60)

                               = 20 x 0.27777777 = 20 x 0.28 m/sec

                               = 5.6 m/sec

CAN YOU OUT RUN A FIRE?

Average Running Speed Boy 13–14 yo = 3.0 m/sec

Average Running Speed Girl 13–14 yo = 2.4 m/sec

We’ll assume, boy or girl, that you are really motivated and can run away from the fire at top speed of 3.0 m/sec. Now calculate the distance you can run and the fire front moves in 10 secs intervals up to 1 minute.

This is not looking good. See more Firefighters Need Maths here.

We can do very accurate calculations using simultaneous equations. Wildfire Algebra: Detailed Worksheet using simultaneous equations and solutions  here.

NOW YOU ARE RUNNING UP HILL. WHAT HAPPENS?

We’ll assume, due to being motivated by having a fire licking your heels, that you can run at your top speed up hill for a short time, at least. But here is the problem.

Heat rises and so there is a Chimney Effect pushing the fire uphill. The rule of thumb used by fire fighters is:

Each 10º increase in slope, the fire front speed doubles.

Now you can calculate the distance travelled by the fire front up a slope at a 30º angle.

Don’t forget you can use the WEB 2.0 Calculator here.

Even at your top running speed, which is unlikely up a slope, you can run 180 m in 1 minute. In that time the forefront has moved 2688 m or 2.7 km.

It depends how far away you are from the fire front, but it seems you cannot out run this fire front.

Again we can do very accurate calculations using simultaneous equations.

See Firefighters Need Maths here.

Wildfire Algebra: Worksheet and solutions here.

CAN YOU OUT RUN A WILD FIRE?

High winds can turn a bush or forrest fire into a WILD FIRE with wind speeds up to 110 kph and temperatures up to 2000 °C, which can and does melt glass and cars.

The fire front speed doubles with every 10º, so speeds for the fire front can reach 220 kph, 330kph and up to 550kph.

What happened to the Smoke Jumpers?

When the fire front changed direction Wag Dodge and 14 other Smoke Jumpers found themselves running for their lives up a steep slope. What did Wag do next?

ANS: Here’s the amazing thing. Wag realised he could not out run the fire at that point. So he stopped. Took off his back pack. Took out some MATCHES and lit a fire in the grassy patch in front of him. Just before the firewall hit he threw himself face down on the burnt patch. He survived. The other 14 firefighters did not.

Smoke Jumpers and their Amazing Wildfire Maths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . USA UNITS

 

 

With wildfires in Texas and now Australia is facing the fire season, it is time to think about fire fighter maths.

 

USA UNITS

Background Story

On 5^th August 1949 Wag Dodge was dropped by parachute with 14 other fire fighters into Mann Gulch, a steep-sided gully in a Montana pine forest. Fire fighters who parachute in to put out small blazes started by lightening are called Smoke Jumpers. As they worked their way down the sides of the gully the breeze was blowing away from them. But the wind soon shifted. This produced an updraft, which increases the speed of the fire front. The 15 Smoke Jumpers turned and started running for their lives uphill.

HOW FAST CAN YOU RUN?

USA UNITS

Time Trial:

Mark out a 30ft course. Make 3 time trials.

t₁ =

t₂ =

t₃=

Average your time:

t_av = (t₁ + t₂ + t₃₎/ 3 =

Your Speed S = 30/t_av   ft/sec

HOW FAST IS A GRASS FIRE?

This will, of course,  vary depending on the wind speed. A typical grass fire in Australia in a flat area can travel at 12mph (up to 20mph) in a gentle breeze.

Fire Front Speed Grass Fire

Fire Front Speed = 12 mph = 12 x 5280/(60 x 60)

                           = 17.6 ft/sec

                           = 18 ft/sec

CAN YOU OUT RUN A FIRE?

Average Running Speed Boy 13–14 yo = 10 ft/sec

Average Running Speed Girl 13–14 yo = 8 ft/sec

We’ll assume, boy or girl, that you are really motivated and can run away from the fire at top speed of 10 ft/sec and -Wow! – this is easy math. Now calculate the distance you can run and the fire front moves in 10 secs intervals up to 1 minute.

This is not looking good. See more Firefighters Need Maths here.

We can do very accurate calculations using simultaneous equations. Wildfire Algebra: Detailed Worksheet using simultaneous equations and solutions  here.

NOW YOU ARE RUNNING UP HILL. WHAT HAPPENS?

We’ll assume, due to being motivated by having a fire licking your heels, that you can run at your top speed up hill for a short time, at least. But here is the problem.

Heat rises and so there is a Chimney Effect pushing the fire uphill. The rule of thumb used by fire fighters is:

Each 10º increase in slope, the fire front speed doubles.

Now you can calculate the distance travelled up a slope at a 30º angle.

Don’t forget you can use the WEB 2.0 Calculator here

Even at your top running speed, which is unlikely up a slope, you can run 1080 ft in 1 minute. In that time the forefront has moved 8640 ft or 1.6 miles. It depends how far away you are from the fire front when you start running, but it seems likely that you cannot out run this fire front.

Again we can do very accurate calculations using simultaneous equations.

See Firefighters Need Maths here.

Wildfire Algebra Worksheet and solutions  here.

CAN YOU OUT RUN A WILD FIRE?

High winds can turn a bush or forrest fire into a WILD FIRE with wind speeds up to 70 mph and temperatures up to 2000 °C, which can and does melt glass and cars.

The fire front speed doubles with every 10º, so speeds for the fire front in a strong wind can reach 140 mph, 210 mph and up to 280 mph.

What happened to the Smoke Jumpers?

When the fire front changed direction Wag Dodge and 14 other Smoke Jumpers found themselves running for their lives up a steep slope. What did Wag do next?

ANS: Here’s the amazing thing. Wag realised he could not out run the fire at that point. So he stopped. Took off his back pack. Took out some MATCHES and lit a fire in the grassy patch in front of him. Just before the firewall hit he threw himself face down on the burnt patch. He survived. The other 14 firefighters did not.

One Second

Fire Fighters Need Maths

-ABC Radio Announcement

Black Saturday Bush Fires Australia

The Fire Season in Australia arrives suddenly. The frightening warning (above) can be heard on the national broadcaster as fires spring up around Australia. It seems no time at all since Aussie fire fighters were helping fight fires in California. Now they’re back. Elvis, The Aircrane, returns form the US for another tour of duty in Victoria.

Aircrane, Elvis, returns to fight bush fires in Australia. Herald Sun

Here is something you may not realise:

And the maths they need is

MIDDLE SCHOOL MATHS.

You can check out a typical Fire Fighter Maths Curriculum here. The significance of the Fire Fighter Maths is that the numbers are shocking. You can look at a wildfire on TV, but when you calculate how much time you have to escape, the answer is truly terrifying.

So here is a Fire Fighter Maths problem from one of Mathspig’s Middle School Worksheets titled:

Fire Fighter Math 1: Wildfire Algebra

METRIC UNITS

On 7^th February 2009 a bushfire began in Victoria Australia that killed 173 people, injured 414 people, destroyed 2,100 homes and displaced 7,562 people. Known as The Black Saturday Bushfires the fire front travelled at up to 600m per 30 seconds. The radiant heat produced was capable of killing people 400 meters away.

Are fire fighters safe in such a fire? How much time do they get to escape the fire in a fire truck even if the fire front is 5 km away? We can do the math:

Q 7: You are a fire fighter in a fire truck when the wind hits the fire front at 120 km/hr. Suddenly, the fire front starts moving at 100 kph. You are, thankfully, in a fire truck but the wind and smoke haze makes driving the truck difficult. You can only make 80 kph along a straight road away from the fire (See pic above). The fire front is 5 km away. How long have you got before the fire front hits?

1. Find S₁ (Fire Front Speed) and S₂ (Fire Truck Speed) in m/sec and kph.
2. Fill in this equation where  d₁   (distance of fire front from point on map) and d₂ (Distance of Fire Truck from the same point on a map)

         d₁ =   d₂   +   ………

   3. Use the following equations to calculate the time t that you have before the flames hit.

USA UNITS

On 7^th February 2009 in The Black Saturday Bushfires the fire front travelled at to 656 yds per 30 seconds. The radiant heat produced was capable of killing people 437 yds away.

Are fire fighters safe in such a fire? How much time do they get to escape the fire in a fire truck even if the fire front is 3.1 miles away? We can do the math. Answers below.

Q 7: You are a fire fighter in a fire truck when the wind hits the fire front at 75 mph. Suddenly, the fire front starts moving at 62 mph. You are, thankfully, in a fire truck but the wind and smoke haze makes driving the truck difficult. You can only make 50 mph along a straight road away from the fire (See pic above). The fire front is 3 miles away. How long have you got before the fire front hits?

1. Find S₁ (Fire Front Speed) and S₂ (Fire Truck Speed) in ft/sec and mph  
2. Fill in this equation where  d₁   (distance of fire front from point on map) and d₂ (Distance of Fire Truck from the same point on a map)

         d₁ =   d₂   +   ………

    3. Use the following equations to calculate the time t that you have before the flames hit.

WORKSHEETS

Fire Fighter Math 1: Wildfire Algebra You will find the worksheets in both METRIC & USA Units Here. Yes! There is a small fee. Mathspig and Roni the Rodent (left) have this very, very slow get rich quick scheme going. Ha!

Lesson Plan:

Students discover that fire fighters need middle-school math. Students complete some warm-up exercises involving unit conversions (mph to ft/sec or kph to m/sec) without and with a calculator and then they simplify algebraic expressions and solve simultaneous equations. Students use this math to calculate real life fire front speeds that fire fighters have faced in Montana, USA and Victoria, Australia. The power of this math is that the calculations are based on the stories about and conditions faced by these real fire fighters. No lectures are needed on the danger of wildfires as the numbers speak for themselves.