Posts Tagged ‘stats’

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Eat Red Meat and Die ….. NOT NOW! ….. Maybe, sometime.

June 19, 2019

Here we go again.

“Eating even the moderate amounts of red and processed meat sanctioned by government guidelines increases the likelihood of developing bowel cancer” according to the above article in The Guardian, UK.

The sample size was 500,000. That’s good. It is a self-selecting sample. That’s not good. They could all be health fanatics. But here is the kicker:

“The researchers found those who ate the most and least red and processed meat tended to exaggerate their consumption or lack thereof.”

That’s a shock. People lie or exaggerate. Even the researchers then suggest – despite the screaming headline – that you don’t change your diet.

Although, looking at the plate above … I would!

Real Men Eat Red Meat and Die … Sometime!

Eat Meat and die??????

According to this headline in THE AUSTRALIAN 25th, March 2009   meat eaters are at risk of dying of cancer. The study published in  Archives of Internal Medicine involved half a million people over 10 years. So far so good. That is a good sample size. The sample consisted of people aged 50 to 71 years at baseline or, obviously, after 10 years 60 to 81years!!!!  So some deaths would be expected. Nevertheless, the article states: 

“Men whose red meat intake put them in the top 20 percent consumption band were 22 percent more likely to die of cancer in the 10 years of the study, compared to men whose intake was in the lowest 20 percent. For women, there was a 20 percent increase in risk.”

Here is the problem. Firstly and I quote from the original study: “Meat intake was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline.’ So they asked people once what their eating habits were then assumed they continued for the next 10 YEARS??? How likely are your eating habits to change in 10 years???

Secondly, and this was mentioned in the article without explaining the maths, big meat eaters tend also to be big drinkers, smokers, obese and the rest. This study has tried to separate out meat eating from other unhealthy lifestyle choices using the Cox Regression. Mathematical wizardry has produced these numbers but they don’t mean much. 

If the study used a control group of drinking, smoking, obese vegans then compared mortality rates over 10 years that would be interesting. But where do you find half a million of them???????? 

Finally,  the study  concluded ‘Red and processed meat intakes were associated with modest increases in total mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality.’ Not the stuff of headlines at all!!!!!!!

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The Terrifying Maths of Running from a Bear … Metric Units

May 14, 2019

METRIC UNITS below. USA UNITS here.

BEAR STATISTICS

Grizzly Bear

Weight:   250kg

Height:   250cm

Top Speed: 56kph  =   16 m/sec

More bear stats here. 

Brown Bear

Weight:  680kg

Height:   250cm

Top Speed: 35kph  = 10m/s

More bear stats here.

Comparing these speeds to the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt:

Usain Bolt:

Top speed: 243kph =   12m/s

So Usain Bolt could out run a Brown Bear but NOT a Grizzly!

Bears are NOT as dangerous as:

In fact more Americans die choking on their own vomit each year than a re killed by bears.

More death stats here.

But bears are very fast so Park Rangers recommend the following survival tactics:

More bear survival info here.

REF: Dog helps save hikers after grizzly chases them for 20 minutes here.

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Survival Maths: Close encounters with Sharks

January 12, 2018

Drone’s Eye View: AWESOME!!!!!

Australia takes it’s sharks very seriously. Shark detecting drones are being trialled on beaches in NSW as a part of the NSW Government’s $16 million Shark Management Strategy. 

The film JAWS has given sharks a bad rap. Here are the STATS:

Deaths by shark attack in the world:

Australia       About 2 a year

USA               1 every 2 years 

UK                  None EVER

CANADA          None EVER

More deaths occur due to falling off chairs in Australia. Quad bikes are deadly anywhere. 

Full Stats and references here.

Meanwhile,  you see a shark fin. You can swim BUT what distance do you need to be from the shark to make it to the beach.

You will find some interesting maths here.

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The Terrifying Maths of Running from a Bear … Metric Units

July 17, 2017

METRIC UNITS below. USA UNITS here.

BEAR STATISTICS

Grizzly Bear

Weight:   250kg

Height:   250cm

Top Speed: 56kph  =   16 m/sec

More bear stats here. 

Brown Bear

Weight:  680kg

Height:   250cm

Top Speed: 35kph  = 10m/s

More bear stats here.

Comparing these speeds to the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt:

Usain Bolt:

Top speed: 243kph =   12m/s

So Usain Bolt could out run a Brown Bear but NOT a Grizzly!

Bears are NOT as dangerous as:

In fact more Americans die choking on their own vomit each year than a re killed by bears.

More death stats here.

But bears are very fast so Park Rangers recommend the following survival tactics:

More bear survival info here.

REF: Dog helps save hikers after grizzly chases them for 20 minutes here.