Posts Tagged ‘How do you calculate virus spread?’

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WHY JUDE LAW CAN’T DO MATHS

October 21, 2011

It’s not often that we have British actor Jude Law ( above) explaining maths to us, but in the new Hollywood film CONTAGION

he demonstrates how quickly a deadly virus could spread … (1.17 point on trailer)

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Jude Law plays the colourful blogger Alan Krumwiede. Gwyneth Paltrow’s character dies and Matt Damon tries to save his daughter. (See pics)

   

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Krumwiede says ‘ On day one there were 2 people, then 4, then 16 … in three months it’s a billion. That’s where we’re heading.’ Is he right?

LETS CHECK IT OUT MATHSPIGS

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.Now this bug is highly contagious, but Krumweide’s estimates start high and end low. In the film he says the number of infected people will grow according to the series 2, 4, 16, 256 and then a number Mathspig,um, missed. (I was munching popcorn.)

This is wrong. According to this progression by Day 3 each person must go out an infect 16 other people. By Day 4 they must infect 256 people each. By Day 5 they must infect 65,536 people each. That is a BIG cough.

Then he claims that in 3 months or 90 days 1 billion people will be infected. That’s so sweet. If the Gweny bug was so highly  contagious the human race wouldn’t last that long. Oddly, however, this number has synergy with the TWILIGHT VAMPIRES.

Even if each germ-riddled person infected only 1 other healthy person each day, this is how long we would last:

You may need to use the WEB 2.0 calculator to solve this problem.

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Not everyone on earth would die, of course. As the numbers drop so do the infection rates. Meanwhile, some people in remote areas would not get infected and some people would have immunity and that’s when the plot gets hot, HOT, HOT!!