Archive for the ‘Newspapers’ Category

h1

7. Crystal Ball Maths

October 12, 2010

Extrapolation.

Extending a graph or equation beyond defined limits.

Extrapolation is in your head. Just because you have a graph and, maybe, even a formula it doesn’t mean you know all the variables. Put simply, you cannot just extend a graph into the future. You may be right or……. Great Balls of Fire! You could be wrong!


Here is an extract of an article by Jeremy Laurance in The Independent, UK, on 27th April, 2009: 

‘At its worst, it could have a devastating global impact, greater than a terrorist attack, nuclear accident or environmental disaster. The World Health Organisation estimates that a mild pandemic could cause up to 7.5 million deaths.’

If you look at the current count as of 11th October 2011 verified World Wide deaths from Swine Flu are 14, 337. (See Swine Flu Count)


Any death is tragic but according to WHO in a normal year, flu kills 12,000 to 20,000 mainly elderly people in Britain and 250,000 around the world.

For more statistics : swine flu mathspig 

h1

8. Group Think

October 12, 2010

Statistics

Independent events can cluster.

I’ve seen this phenomena explained on the TV show Numb3rs. Fire a shotgun at a barn wall, draw a circle around a group of bullet holes with chalk and say ‘Wow! We hit the target’. Similarly, if groups of workers at a power plant, say, get a disease, the newspapers immediately blame the workplace. They could be right, but on the other hand, they could be wrong and the real cause of the illness is missed. (See  ABC Cancer Scare example.)

I’ve included the water % chart below to show you how grouping numbers after the event – namely your birth – may NOT reflect the nature of the whole.

eg. ABC abandons cancer scare building (The Age 21st Dec 2006)’

‘The ABC building in the Brisbane suburb of Toowong will be abandoned without knowing the cause of a high incidence of breast cancer cases among women staff members.

A five month investigation by an independent review panel was conducted after 12 women were diagnosed with breast cancer in the past 11 years.’

‘The study showed women who worked at the office reported breast cancer at a rate 11 times higher than the general working community.’

Catalyst ABC TV 11th Oct 2007

Cancer Clusters

‘The site was also tested for carcinogenic pollution and contamination of water supply and air conditioning. Quite simply, no scientific explanation for the cancers was found.’

Radiation levels were tested. Other possible breast cancer causes sited were shift work and the Mouse Mammary Virus.

No causal link has yet been found.

h1

9. We’re All Gonna Die!!!!!!!

October 12, 2010

Statistics

Statistics apply to Groups not Individuals

or Why Death Rates are Over-Rated!!!

We’re All Gonna die!!!  Well, um, this statement is true. The morbidity rate for humans is still 100%. Hopefully, you will be happy, healthy and 110 years old before such statistics begin to worry you. 

Newspapers often run statistics stating that your chance of being killed by a shark is 1 in 271,257 as shown. It’s NOT.

Firstly, you know this statistic is a bit dodgy. If you do not go into the water ever you will never be eaten by a shark. You chance of being shark bait is a BIG 0.

Secondly, these statistics apply to groups not to the individual. In every 271,257 Australians 1 MIGHT be eaten by a shark. In 251, 257 surfers the numbers eaten by a shark would be MUCH greater. 

Finally, these numbers still seem high. What?  77 people are killed by sharks in Australia annually. NO. These are statistics over a lifetime. 80 years, say. Less than 1 Aussie a year is killed by sharks on average but just because one surfer has died you cannot say ‘Great! The sharks have reached their annual quota I can go back in the water.’

Statistics can NEVER tell you WHAT might happen to you!

It’s a GROUP THING. All you can learn from these statistics are the  exit-the-earth probabilities for Australians that, mostly, we don’t get to choose.

h1

10. Dumb Media Maths

October 12, 2010

Statistics

When the numbers are totally fake but no one checks!!!!

The biggest mistake made by journalists in the media is NOT QUESTIONING the numbers or validating the source. Rubbish statistics work their way into the media and become the gospel according to everyone. Sometimes, media maths seems to be written by dummies for dummies.

In an excellent article Numbers UP: Truth About Statistics ( The Independent, UK, 9th April, 2008) Simon Usborne states ‘ Flicking through a day’s newspapers often feels like tackling a numerical assault course.’ He quotes some alarming headlines form the previous day including “Ninety-six per cent of children in European orphanages are not orphans”. “In the UK we throw away 4.4 million apples a year”.

My favourite, however, is :

“Falling coconuts kill 150 people a year” 

In 2002, in an article about the uprooting of coconut trees by lawsuit-wary Australian officials, the Daily Telegraph reported: “Coconuts… kill about 150 people worldwide each year, making them more dangerous than sharks.”

No source has yet been found confirming this statistic.

Similarly,

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania decided to search for the source of the statistic that insisted you should drink 8 glasses of water a day. Their conclusion: “It is unclear where this recommendation came from.” In other words, they could not find any study to support the “eight glasses” claim.

So when you are drinking those 8 glasses of water a day you better look up incase you’re hit on the head by a coconut!!!!!!!